In information that may shock nobody, GPU gross sales soared in Q1 2021. Gross sales defied historic traits and the market’s total momentum is predicted to proceed by the again half of the yr.
That’s the phrase from Jon Peddie Analysis, who discovered GPU gross sales had been up a whopping 35 p.c year-on-year and down simply Zero.three p.c from This autumn 2020. The standard decline in Q1 is 7 p.c. AMD shipments had been down 1 p.c from This autumn 2020, Intel shipments had been down 1 p.c (this displays laptop computer gross sales) and Nvidia shipped three.9 p.c extra playing cards.
The truth that excessive demand hit in Q1 could clarify why GPUs have been so onerous to seek out. It may additionally clarify among the warnings from varied OEMs final winter that issues would quickly get “even worse.” TSMC and Samsung each work off lengthy lead occasions they usually schedule clients for manufacturing area primarily based on seasonal expectations for when fab traces shall be out there. If a buyer cancels orders, as occurred within the automotive trade final yr, TSMC sells that capability to different clients down the road.
There’s no proof that is true. And clearly, AMD and Nvidia each noticed further demand coming earlier than This autumn 2020. However higher-than-expected demand, mixed with even a nominal restriction in capability from This autumn 2020 to Q1 2021, would make an already unhealthy scenario worse. AMD would have needed to dedicate extra manufacturing to assembly demand for the Xbox Sequence X and PlayStation 5, and should not have had the assets to construct RDNA2 GPUs in vital numbers.
We proceed to see proof that AMD is capability constrained. The corporate’s GPU share slipped Zero.12 p.c whereas Intel fell Zero.5 p.c. Nvidia was the winner, choosing up Zero.62 p.c market share. The decline in shipments for Intel and AMD probably displays one other level Peddie makes in his report. The GPU connect price is the proportion of techniques that ship out with a discrete GPU quite than an built-in answer. The GPU connect price elevated Four p.c in Q1 2021 in contrast with This autumn 2020 and Nvidia’s positive aspects mirror that concept.
Right here’s how all of this breaks down: Nvidia shipped extra graphics playing cards out the door in Q1 2021 in contrast with This autumn 2020, whereas AMD and Intel didn’t. PC gross sales fell by greater than GPU gross sales (-Four p.c versus -Zero.three p.c) and shipments of desktop graphics playing cards rose by 7 p.c. Understand that these comparisons embody built-in graphics market share and Nvidia has none.
The GPU market is extraordinarily wholesome proper now, should you outline well being when it comes to the amount of cash Nvidia and AMD are raking in. If you happen to’re extra involved with availability, issues aren’t nice. Proper now, GPU shortages are anticipated to final by 2021.