Prices of consumer goods and services increased by 4.3% during the year. – Results of a rapid assessment of the Central Bureau of Statistics. This is the highest CPI inflation rate in more than a year, when it reached 4.7 and 4.6% in February and March 2020, respectively.
Inflation in April was 4.3%. Compared to April last year. In the replay Compared to February 2021, prices are up 0.7 percent. These results beat economists’ expectations – on average they assumed a 4% increase year-over-year.
The price increase has the largest effect on the increase in prices food (Increase of 1.2% y / y, 1% m / m) and fuel (An increase of 28.1% year on year, 1% year on year). Energy is also a problem (a 3.9% increase over the year), with prices rising due to allocations for carbon dioxide emissions, which are now nearly twice the cost of the Coronavirus pandemic. Our portfolios are also still affected by managed rates, such as garbage collection, which increased several tens of percent during the year.
Inflation is currently well above the National Bank’s target of 2.5%. (With a possible deviation of 1 percentage point up and down). However, for the time being, the central bank announcements do not indicate a tightening of monetary policy. President Adam Glabinski claims that prices are rising due to factors beyond the control of the NBP, and that high inflation is of a temporary nature.
Rising prices are a global trend, Worldwide, it is getting higher than expected indicators. For example, in Germany, which has recently suffered from deflation, prices rose 2% in April. This is the highest inflation rate for our neighbors in two years.
More expensive raw materials and higher production costs are also important. Copper has been the most expensive since 2011, and aluminum since 2018. Wood has also become more expensive.
What is the inflationary future that awaits us? As the economy opens up, prices are likely to rise further. This is indicated, for example, by data from the United States, where after easing restrictions, inflation in March was the highest since August 2012. This year in Poland we could see indicators close to 5 percent.
Flash rating is a preliminary general indication at the moment. Details of what became the most expensive will be announced in mid-April.